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http://hdl.handle.net/2451/14321
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| Title: | CREATIVITY IN STRATEGIC PLANNING: THE INFLUENCE OF TEMPORAL PERSPECTIVE |
| Authors: | Rollier, Bruce
Turner, Jon A. |
| Keywords: | strategic planning
strategy formulation
scenarios
strategic information systems
decision-making
decision support systems
creativity |
| Issue Date: | Jan-1992 |
| Publisher: | Stern School of Business, New York University |
| Series/Report no.: | IS-92-04 |
| Abstract: | As organizational environments become more turbulent and complex and as
uncertainty about the future increases, reliance on quantitative
decision-making approaches for strategic planning becomes less
appropriate. Scenario analysis can be an effective qualitative technique
for enhancing strategic planning. Typically, scenarios are presented as
alternate futures. Some theorists, however, have suggested that forward
and backward thinking are different cognitive processes. In this study,
we investigate the effect of presenting scenarios retrospectively; that
is, as if future events had already happened. A repeated measures
laboratory study compared the performance of professional planners (n =
64) using prospective and retrospective scenarios in two simulated
business planning tasks. Measures consisted of objective factors (number
of individual planning statements and number of monitoring statements),
subjective factors (quality based on an 18-question rating instrument),
and subject attitudes concerning their experience with the two
treatments. Results suggest that use of retrospective scenarios do
increase the number of planning statements. In addition, plans prepared
using retrospective scenarios were rated higher overall than those
prepared with prospective scenarios. Moreover, evidence emerged that a
subset of subjects were better able to make use of the retrospective
technique, suggesting that selection along with training may improve
planning performance. |
| URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2451/14321 |
| Appears in Collections: | IOMS: Information Systems Working Papers
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