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dc.contributor.authorLettau, Martin-
dc.contributor.authorVan Nieuwerburgh, Stijnen
dc.date.accessioned2008-05-25T18:32:52Z-
dc.date.available2008-05-25T18:32:52Z-
dc.date.issued2006-04-27-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2451/26374-
dc.description.abstractEvidence of stock return predictability by financial ratios is still controversial, as documented by inconsistent results for in-sample and out-of-sample regressions and by substantial parameter instability. This paper shows that these seemingly incompatible results can be reconciled if the assumption of a fixed steady-state mean of the economy is relaxed. We find strong empirical evidence in support of shifts in the steady-state and propose simple methods to adjust financial ratios for such shifts. The in-sample forecasting relationship of adjusted price ratios and future returns is statistically significant and stable over time. In real-time,however, changes in the steady-state make the in-sample return forecast ability hard to exploit out-of-sample. The uncertainty of estimating the size of steady-state shifts rather than the estimation of their dates is responsible for the difficulty of forecasting stock returns in real-time. Our conclusions hold for a variety of financial ratios and are robust to changes in the econometric technique used to estimate shifts in the steady-state.en
dc.language.isoen_USen
dc.relation.ispartofseriesFIN-06-013en
dc.titleReconciling the Return Predictability Evidenceen
dc.typeWorking Paperen
Appears in Collections:Finance Working Papers

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