An Empirical Study of Factors Relating to the Success of Broadway Shows

Abstract

This article uses the Cox proportional hazards model to analyze recent Broadway show data to investigate the factors that relate to the longevity of shows. The type of show, whether a show is a revival, and first-week attendance for the show are predictive for longevity. Favorable critic reviews in the New York Daily News are related to greater success, but reviews in the New York Times are not. Winning major Tony Awards is associated with a longer run for a show, but being nominated for Tonys and then losing is associated with a shorter postaward run.