The Equilibrium Size of the Financial Sector

Abstract

Over the past 60 years, the value added of the U.S. financial sector has grown from 2.3% to 7.7% of GDP. I present a model of the equilibrium size of this industry and I study the factors that might explain its evolution. According to the model, a shift in the joint distribution of cash flows and investment opportunities across U.S. firms has increased the demand for financial services. Improvements in the relative efficiency of the finance industry also play a role. Without these improvements, a much larger fraction of firms would be financially constrained today.