Opening Pandora's Box: Studying the Accuracy of Managers' Perceptions

Abstract

Both researchers and managers depend on the accuracy of managers' perceptions. Yet, few studies compare subjective with "objective" data, perhaps because it is very difficult to do well. These difficulties also muddy interpretations of results. On one hand, studies suggest that managers' perceptions may be very inaccurate. On the other hand, the observed errors in managerial perceptions may arise from research methods instead of managers. Because perceptual data are so significant for both researchers and managers, researchers need to understand both the potential contaminants of perceptual research and the determinants of perceptual errors and biases. This article reviews studies of the accuracies of managers' perceptions, points out hazards in such research, and suggests various ways to improve studies of perceptions. The suggestions encompass improvements in gathering more valid subjective data, locating more appropriate "objective" data, finding appropriate respondents, and using statistical methods that provide accurate and reliable estimates with small samples.