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|Title: ||CREATIVITY IN STRATEGIC PLANNING: THE INFLUENCE OF TEMPORAL PERSPECTIVE|
|Authors: ||Rollier, Bruce|
Turner, Jon A.
|Keywords: ||strategic planning|
strategic information systems
decision support systems
|Issue Date: ||Jan-1992|
|Publisher: ||Stern School of Business, New York University|
|Series/Report no.: ||IS-92-04|
|Abstract: ||As organizational environments become more turbulent and complex and as
uncertainty about the future increases, reliance on quantitative decision-making
approaches for strategic planning becomes less appropriate. Scenario analysis can
be an effective qualitative technique for enhancing strategic planning. Typically,
scenarios are presented as alternate futures. Some theorists, however, have
suggested that forward and backward thinking are different cognitive processes. In
this study, we investigate the effect of presenting scenarios retrospectively; that is,
as if future events had already happened.
A repeated measures laboratory study compared the performance of
professional planners (n = 64) using prospective and retrospective scenarios in two
simulated business planning tasks. Measures consisted of objective factors
(number of individual planning statements and number of monitoring statements),
subjective factors (quality based on an 18-question rating instrument), and subject
attitudes concerning their experience with the two treatments.
Results suggest that use of retrospective scenarios do increase the number of
planning statements. In addition, plans prepared using retrospective scenarios
were rated higher overall than those prepared with prospective scenarios.
Moreover, evidence emerged that a subset of subjects were better able to make use
of the retrospective technique, suggesting that selection along with training may
improve planning performance.|
|Appears in Collections:||IOMS: Information Systems Working Papers|
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