A Two Factor No-Arbitrage Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Abstract

We derive a no-arbitrage model of the term structure in which any two futures rates act as factors. The term structure shifts and tilts as the factor rates vary. The cross-sectional properties of the model derive from the solution of a two-dimensional ARMA process for the short rate which exhibits mean reversion and a lagged memory parameter. We show that the correlation of the factor rates is restricted by the no-arbitrage conditions of the model. Hence in a multiple-factor model it is not valid to independently choose both the mean reversion, volatility and correlation parameters. The term-structure model, derived here, can be used to value options on bonds and swaps or to generate term structure scenarios for the risk management of portfolios of interest-rate derivatives.